Empirical Finance · FiguresEducation, not investment advice
Figures
Three models you can run
Each figure recomputes as you type. The formulas are printed under it, the defaults are illustrative, and what you enter stays in your browser.
1 Stipend path into industry pay
How much does the length of a postdoc change what you have saved fifteen years later? Set the stipend, the raise, the number of years and the industry salary. The band moves every assumption at once; panel b moves them one at a time.
Assumptions (illustrative defaults)
- High case
- Base case (your inputs)
- Low case
- Sensitivity band
After 15 years: $241,841 in the base case, between $117,232 and $453,921 across the band. One more postdoc year changes the base case by −$13,676.
Figure 1b. Which assumption moves year-15 savings most, one at a time
- Savings rate (±3 points)$169k to $314k
- Annual return (±2 points)$214k to $275k
- Industry salary (±15%)$212k to $271k
- Years as a postdoc (±1 year)$228k to $257k
- Annual raise (±1 point)$232k to $252k
- Starting stipend (±10%)$237k to $246k
Each row changes one assumption to its low and its high value and holds the others at your inputs. Bars grow left (orange) for the low value and right (blue) for the high value from the base result of $241,841.
Table 1. Values plotted in Figure 1
| Year | Pay, base | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $60,000 | $3,780 | $6,000 | $8,580 |
| 2 | $61,800 | $7,749 | $12,480 | $18,104 |
| 3 | $63,654 | $11,914 | $19,469 | $28,651 |
| 4 | $65,564 | $16,283 | $26,999 | $48,597 |
| 5 | $120,000 | $20,863 | $40,349 | $70,656 |
| 6 | $123,600 | $28,629 | $54,727 | $95,006 |
| 7 | $127,308 | $36,771 | $70,194 | $121,836 |
| 8 | $131,127 | $45,302 | $86,816 | $151,352 |
| 9 | $135,061 | $54,238 | $104,663 | $183,774 |
| 10 | $139,113 | $63,594 | $123,808 | $219,338 |
| 11 | $143,286 | $73,385 | $144,327 | $258,299 |
| 12 | $147,585 | $83,627 | $166,301 | $300,932 |
| 13 | $152,012 | $94,338 | $189,818 | $347,532 |
| 14 | $156,573 | $105,534 | $214,966 | $398,414 |
| 15 | $161,270 | $117,232 | $241,841 | $453,921 |
Method
Pay in year t: Pt = S(1 + g)t−1 while t ≤ T, and I(1 + g)t−1−T after, where S is the starting stipend, g the annual raise, T the postdoc years and I the first industry salary.
Savings: Bt = Bt−1(1 + r) + s·Pt, with B0 = 0, s the savings rate and r the annual return. Each year’s saving is added at the year’s end.
Low case: S −10%, g −1 point, T +1 year, I −15%, s −3 points, r −2 points. High case: the reverse. Pay is before tax; dollars are not adjusted for inflation; there is no employer match, fee, loan payment or gap between jobs.
Correspondence Want someone to apply this to your own numbers? We verify your inputs with you, then introduce a licensed advisor who works with scientists and researchers.
2 Buffer for a funding gap
When part of your salary is paid from grants, a gap between awards is a known risk with an unknown date. This sizes a cash buffer from the share of pay at risk, the bridge funding your institution offers and the gap you plan for.
Assumptions (illustrative defaults)
Ask your department in writing.
- Ordinary cushion: $10,500
- Cover for the uncovered gap: $6,600
Buffer to hold: $17,100, about 4.9 months of essential spending. The gap outlasts bridge funding by 6 months, and each of those months is $1,100 short.
Method
Monthly shortfall during a gap: D = max(0, E − (1 − f)M), where E is essential spending, M take-home pay and f the grant-paid share. Uncovered months: U = max(0, G − B). Buffer = C·E + U·D, with C the ordinary cushion in months. It assumes the non-grant share of pay continues through the gap and benefits continue; check both with your institution.
Correspondence Want someone to apply this to your own numbers? We verify your inputs with you, then introduce a licensed advisor who works with scientists and researchers.
3 The cost of a late start
Stipend years often come without access to a retirement plan. This compares the same yearly contribution started today and started after a delay, both ending on the same date.
Assumptions (illustrative defaults)
- Start now
- Start after 4 years
Difference at the end: $117,357. Of that, $24,000 is the contributions skipped and $93,357 is the growth they would have earned.
Method
Balance after n yearly contributions of A at return r: A[(1 + r)n − 1] / r. Start now: n = N. Start later: n = N − D. No employer contribution, fees or tax are modelled.
Correspondence Want someone to apply this to your own numbers? We verify your inputs with you, then introduce a licensed advisor who works with scientists and researchers.
4 Request an introduction
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